Whale Copy

Every trade on Polymarket is a transaction on the Polygon blockchain — permanently public, timestamped to the second, and traceable to a wallet address. Some wallets have months of auditable history showing consistent, large-scale profits across dozens or hundreds of sports trades. Whale Copy identifies those wallets, monitors them in real time, and replicates their positions proportionally within 800 milliseconds of detection.

// WHO QUALIFIES

Not every large wallet is worth following. A single lucky bet on a long shot can make a wallet look profitable for months without any real edge behind it. The qualification criteria are designed to filter for genuine, repeatable performance rather than variance.

To qualify for active copying, a wallet needs at least 20 trades in the rolling 30-day window, a win rate above 55%, and total profit above $10,000 in the period. It also needs a gain-to-loss ratio above 2.0 — meaning winning trades should, on average, return more than twice what losing trades cost. That last filter catches wallets that run high win rates through small winners and occasional catastrophic losses.

The engine also checks that no single trade accounts for more than 60% of total profits. A wallet where one massive win explains most of the P&L is a coin flip in disguise, not a signal. And wallets that specialize in politics or crypto markets get filtered out — following a sharp political bettor into an NFL game produces no edge.

New wallets go through a seven-day monitoring period before any copying begins. That window allows the system to verify the performance is current and not a historical artifact before capital is committed. Structural arb bots — wallets that trade every outcome in a NegRisk group simultaneously — are automatically blacklisted. Their edge is execution speed, not information, so there's nothing to copy.

// HOW COPYING WORKS

The engine monitors tracked wallet addresses via the Polygon blockchain in real time. When a qualifying wallet makes a new move in a sports market, Matchpoly parses the on-chain data — which market, which side, how many shares, at what price — and checks whether there's still liquidity near the original price. If the detection latency exceeds 800 milliseconds, the signal is discarded. The price has already moved; chasing it adds slippage without adding edge.

Position sizes scale proportionally relative to the tracked wallet's estimated capital. A wallet trading $50,000 on a game gets replicated at a fraction of that size — never at full scale. Large wallets move markets when they trade; copying at 1-to-1 would cause self-reinforcing price impact that erodes the very edge being copied. No single copy trade exceeds 5% of total allocated capital regardless of the wallet's conviction.

Wallet performance is monitored continuously. If a wallet's rolling 10-day P&L goes negative, it gets demoted from active copying to passive monitoring — tracked but not followed with capital until performance recovers. There's no manual intervention required; the degradation and reinstatement process runs automatically.

See also: Risk Management · News Reflex