The Pinnacle Gap

Pinnacle is the sharpest sportsbook on earth. They accept professional bettors, run margins thinner than anyone in the industry, and adjust their lines quickly when informed money hits. Polymarket is a prediction market driven by fans and retail traders. These two crowds disagree constantly. The Pinnacle Gap engine finds those disagreements, verifies they're large enough to be worth trading after fees, and buys the underpriced side on Polymarket — automatically, every time.

// WHY PINNACLE

Not all sportsbooks price equally. A recreational book like DraftKings or FanDuel is designed around casual bettors — it builds a wide margin into its odds and limits or restricts winning accounts to protect its position. Pinnacle operates on the opposite model. They accept sharp bettors in large sizes, run a razor-thin margin (roughly 2–3% round trip on major markets), and let the flow of informed money sharpen their lines rather than fighting it.

The result is that Pinnacle's lines represent something closer to a true probability than almost any other publicly available price. When their implied probability on a team winning diverges from Polymarket's, that gap usually reflects real information — not noise. Matchpoly also cross-references Betfair, the largest peer-to-peer betting exchange, and other sharp references to build a consensus estimate before taking any position.

Line movement matters too. A Pinnacle line that has been stable for at least ten minutes carries more weight than one that's moving fast. Rapid movement suggests something is changing in real time — a developing injury, a late lineup change, sharp money arriving from a new angle. In those cases, Matchpoly waits rather than trading into uncertainty.

// HOW THE TRADE WORKS

The engine runs a continuous comparison: Pinnacle's vig-free implied probability on one side, Polymarket's current price on the other. Stripping the vig means removing the house margin from Pinnacle's odds to get their raw probability estimate — what they actually believe, not what they charge for. The difference between that number and Polymarket's price is the edge.

A trade only triggers when the edge clears 3.5%. That threshold exists because Polymarket charges a 2% fee on every trade. Below 3.5%, the gap is real but too narrow to survive fees and still be worth the variance. Above it, the position is sized using a fractional Kelly approach — a mathematically derived formula that determines how much capital to allocate based on the size of the edge and the odds. Matchpoly runs at roughly one-quarter of full Kelly, which keeps individual positions conservative. No single market ever receives more than 5% of total capital.

The default exit is holding to resolution — letting the edge play out at settlement. If Polymarket's price moves halfway toward the Pinnacle consensus before the game starts, Matchpoly may exit half the position early to lock in profit and reduce variance. If the Pinnacle line itself moves significantly against the position — meaning sharp money is now on the other side — that's an immediate exit regardless of what Polymarket shows. The sharp book changing its view is the most important signal the system tracks.

The engine only trades markets with enough volume to fill positions without material slippage — typically above $150,000 in total market volume — and with at least 30 minutes until game time. The final window before kickoff is too volatile and too information-rich to trade on a stale price comparison.